Obama's Plan for Iraq

Barack Obama shares his plan for Iraq in an op-ed today in the NY Times. I'm glad that he's still sticking with his 16 month draw down. What's new to me is the mention of a residual force remaining in Iraq afterwards. Perhaps he's mentioned the residual force before, but I hadn't heard of it. This residual force's missions would include "going after any remnants of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protecting American service members and, so long as the Iraqis make political progress, training Iraqi security forces."

I have some misgivings and questions about this residual force. First, the U.S. would not be completely out of Iraq, something that I believe should occur and that I think many in the Middle East, particularly the Iraqi citizenry would prefer. I think any U.S. military footprint in Iraq would be unwelcome to Iraqis. The U.S. has wreaked and triggered enough damage on Iraq for it to be persona non grata. Views could change on this if Iraqis do see a good faith effort by Obama, his administration, and the U.S. military in getting Iraq back on its feet, being independent, and moving towards the sustainability of a peaceful society. The residual force though does serve to provide strategic and political flexibility. It's not necessarily an unwise option, but I think it's purpose is to play more to a U.S. audience than an Iraqi audience.

The obvious question about the residual force is: What size would it be? 5,000 troops? 10,000 troops? Obama's got to be questioned on that if the media has any sense of what its job is. Most likely though, Obama won't initially provide a number. It would be hard to at this early stage, but there's a range that he has to have in mind, and it's one that he should share with the voters and Iraqis. Also, how long would the residual force be expected to stay in Iraq? This is an even harder question to answer, but it is a fair one to ask.

It would also be nice to know what the Iraqis would think of Obama's plan. Has Obama's campaign gotten any insight into what the Iraqis would be agreeable to. We hear now that the Iraqis are in favor of a withdrawal timetable. What do they think of a residual force?

Though Obama explains this plan, and it's good to have one, the big question is how is the Iraqi political process going to play out. There are still many unresolved issues, and it's still very uncertain as to whether the Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds can coexist under one government.

It's good to get the plan (at least the general plan) down in print after last week's kerfuffle about whether Obama was changing is position on Iraq. It's sure to trigger much discussion in the blogosphere and in MSM.